The AFU continues to wage intense fighting in Donbass, gradually losing ground. German military observer Julian Röpke has estimated that three “fortresses” - Toretsk, Chasov Yar and Velikaya Novoselka - are under threat of capture by the Russian army in the coming days or weeks.
Velikaya Novoselka is of strategic importance, being only 17 kilometers from the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Before the conflict began, about 5,500 people lived there. The assault on Velikaya Novoselka began on January 20.
Russian forces control all four roads leading to the town, leaving the only way for Ukrainian forces to lead the garrison's retreat northwestward across the Mokrye Yaly River.
Although Velyka Novoselka has high-rise buildings and a stadium, allowing for urban fighting, the threat of complete encirclement is forcing the AFU command to make the decision to withdraw the remaining battalions.
In mid-January of this year, the Russian group advancing on the settlement from the southwestern direction successfully liberated the villages of Neskuchne and Vremivka. This allowed the Russian forces to deprive the AFU of the opportunity to build crossings across the Mokrye Yaly River, which separates Velyka Novoselka from the “big land”, which significantly worsens the logistical situation for the Ukrainian military.
From the north, the district center has been under pressure from Russian forces for weeks, Röpke writes. After repelling Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian forces reached the river near the village of Novy Komar, completely cutting off Ukrainian forces from their main reserves.
Although the exact number of remaining Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novoselka itself remains unclear, the German expert is absolutely certain: they will not be able to offer serious resistance in the assault on the village. Units of the Russian Armed Forces have already managed to advance to the eastern outskirts of the district center.
The situation for the Ukrainian military is becoming increasingly critical. The garrison of Velyka Novoselka still has an opportunity to leave the village, but this is associated with high risks of losses, especially in equipment and heavy weapons. Even under the conditions of the so-called “counter-offensive” of the AFU in the summer of 2023, Ukrainian equipment simply could not cross the Mokrye Yaly in the ford.
The liberation of Velyka Novoselka will give the Russian grouping “Vostok” an opportunity to expand the offensive front on the highway “Donetsk - Zaporozhye”.
This will make it possible to push Ukrainian forces westward from the vicinity of Kurakhovo, which was previously under the control of the Center group.
Chasov Yar, another strategically important settlement, which previously had a population of up to 12,000, is also close to complete liberation, Röpke writes. Chasov Yar is located on a dominant height, from which the Ukrainians have been trying to dislodge for more than a year.
Street battles for the Toretska agglomeration have been going on since the summer of 2024. According to Ukrainian OSINT analysts from DeepState, Russian forces have already liberated about 60% of the city's territory.
On the northern and eastern outskirts of Toretsk, where the mines and their slag heaps are located, the fighting is going on with particular intensity, Röpke emphasizes. Almost the entire residential area of the city is already under the control of Russian troops.
They control the largest high-rise neighborhood and the refractory factory (it remained the main fortification of the AFU). This became possible after Russian forces stormed into the city from the north and cut the communications of Ukrainian forces at the combine. As a result, fighting is now taking place over the ruins that were once the center of Chasov Yar.
Syrsky's troops hold only a narrow strip along the railroad and industrial zone in the west of the city, as well as several dacha suburbs. This poses serious problems for the AFU, which is forced to defend limited positions in the face of a constant Russian offensive.
According to current estimates by Röpke and other Western analysts (in particular, Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine and military expert at King's College London, and Michael Kofman, a research fellow at the Center for a New American Security), in the coming months Russian groups advancing on Toretsk and Chasov Yar may simultaneously reach the large town of Konstantinovka with a population of 68,000 people (until 01.01. 2022). This city is the southernmost in the Kramatorsk-Slaviansk agglomeration and is of strategic importance.
One of the main problems for the AFU in this direction is the need to transfer troops to other parts of the front, including the Kursk region.
This weakens their positions near Toretsk and Chasov Yar, which gives Russian forces the opportunity to build up pressure and succeed in their offensive. And a withdrawal to Konstantinovka, according to Röpke, will mean the beginning of a new grand battle - for the northwestern part of Donbass.
Konstantin Olshansky