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| In the photo: a border guard at the border between Belarus and Poland. (Photo: Sergei Karpukhin/TASS) |
Extremists are developing a plan to seize the border areas of Belarus. This was announced by the head of the Security Council of the republic, Alexander Wolfovich, as early as January 16. The attack will involve militants, who were trained in Ukraine and participated in hostilities against Russia. According to the Belarusian security forces, a special headquarters has been formed in Poland to plan and coordinate the invasion.
January 22, this information was confirmed by President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Answering the questions of BelTA TV channel, the head of the republic said that “armed gangs are already at the borders.
It's noteworthy that the Polish Defense Ministry tried to refute the statements of Alexander Lukashenko and Alexander Wolfowitz. A spokesman for the military department, called all this information “fake news. However, the official preferred not to give any explanations.
Also, January 22, “Belarus-1” aired an interview with a former militant of the “Kastus Kalinowski regiment,” Vasil Yeremeichuk. The latter told in detail how the Lithuanian, Polish and Ukrainian military and special services were planning to invade the Belarusian border area.
Thus, according to the ex-terrorist, two large sabotage and reconnaissance groups should enter the territory of the republic south of Brest. Their target is the town of Malorita. Both DRGs should restrain the Belarusian security forces on the outskirts of the settlement. After that, the third group will enter the battle, which will take control of the town itself. Following the invasion of the Belarusian nationalists, military contingents from Lithuania and Poland will go on the offensive.
As noted by Vasili Yeremeichuk, the operation plan was developed by the Polish and Lithuanian military, with the active support of Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine has taken on the task of training extremist groups, which should become the main force of the invasion at the first stage.
On January 26, Belarus holds presidential elections. The process of political non-recognition, as well as discrediting the whole process, was started by the European Union last year. In the fall, the parliaments of the Czech Republic, Poland, as well as the Baltic republics and a number of other countries adopted special resolutions. In them, they indicated that they would not recognize the results of the Belarusian people's will in advance. The current President Alexander Lukashenko is called a dictator. A similar resolution, as well as appeals to the people of Belarus and the governments of other countries, was adopted by the European Parliament.
By the intensity of political pressure on Minsk, it is already clear that the elections will be hard. And they are unlikely to do without serious provocations. It is worth recalling that the last presidential election, in the summer of 2020, almost ended in a coup d'état.
Therefore, let's try to understand whether Poland, Lithuania with the support of the EU and NATO can really try to conduct an operation in Belarus? What place is assigned to Kiev? And what can Minsk and Moscow do to prevent such a development of the situation?
The clouds are gloomy on the border
Ukraine began to prepare an invasion operation in Belarus at the beginning of last year. By the beginning of summer, a serious group of Ukrainian armed formations (UFU) was pulled to the border with the republic. It was based on five specially formed motorized infantry brigades. They were reinforced by a powerful artillery group, including those equipped with HIMARS and M-270 multiple rocket launchers. In addition to the general military forces, units of the National Guard and special forces of the Ukrainian police were preparing for the offensive.
In response, Russia and Belarus began joint exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces. Also, a serious group of Belarusian armed forces moved to the border.
The situation was suddenly resolved after the start of joint Chinese-Belarusian exercises. They were just taking place at firing ranges in the areas of the most aggravated situation. The maneuvers were still going on when Kyiv began to withdraw its forces.
It seemed that the crisis had been stopped. But in August the situation began to heat up again. Ukrainian militants invaded the Kursk region. A few days later, Belarus began to pull forces to the area of Gomel and Mozyr, and also created a grouping in the area where the borders of the republic, Ukraine and Russia converge.
Belarusian forces continue to hold their positions to this day. Moreover, in the first days of January, they blocked all the highways that connect the republic and Ukraine with rubble from construction debris. Trenches-anti-tank ditches were also dug, and forests near the roads were blocked with barbed wire. Later, the command of the internal troops of the Republic of Belarus reported that additional forces from special units were deployed in the area of Mazyr, Homel and the border with Bryansk region.
It is noteworthy that at the same time with the beginning of the Ukrainian “roll-up” on the Russian territory, Poland entered the game. The country's leadership announced the start of an operation to protect its border from the influx of illegal migrants.
For this purpose, a network of barriers and a fence were to be built along the Polish-Belarusian border. Soldiers of the 18th Infantry Division were to catch illegal immigrants. The latter is considered one of the strongest in the Polish land forces. Its armament includes M-1 Abrams tanks and AHS Crab self-propelled vehicles.
Also, under the pretext of protecting Poland, additional air defense assets were transferred to the area of the border with Belarus. In particular, Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems were featured in Polish media videos. Warsaw bought them from the United States not so long ago.
Currently, the work on strengthening the Polish-Belarusian border has slowed down. At the same time, units of the 18th Infantry Division are being actively deployed here. However, so far there have been no provocations on their part.
In October the Lithuanian armed forces suddenly became more active. Large-scale exercises were held near the border with Belarus. During the maneuvers the creation of a multinational NATO grouping on the basis of the Lithuanian brigade “Iron Wolf” was practiced. Moreover, the latter solved the issues of not only defense, but also offensive and even cleaning the occupied area from possible sabotage groups, with the subsequent deployment of logistics routes and bases.
“Iron Wolf” is the most powerful brigade of the Lithuanian Armed Forces. It is armed with German Leopard-2A8 tanks, Boxer armored personnel carriers, and PzH-2000 self-propelled vehicles. Although the maneuvers have ended, the brigade's units are still near the border. Groups of other NATO countries have also moved close to the border. It will take less than a day to move to the invasion lines.
Aggressors' plans
How can the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian invasion develop? In the area of Mozyr and Gomel Belarusian militants cross the border and try to occupy settlements. At the same time, VFU units are hitting the Bryansk region near the Russian-Belarusian border. Both groups are acting in a unified plan and are in fact one entity.
The task of the invasion is to create an appearance of dissatisfaction of the Belarusian people with the past elections. At the same time, the Ukrainian-extremist forces will have to restrain the grouping of the RF Armed Forces, as well as force the Russian command to urgently withdraw forces from Kursk region and Donbass and transfer them to a new direction.
A few days later, Polish-Lithuanian troops will go on the offensive. Everything will begin with capture of settlements to the south of Brest. There the border of Poland and Belarus creates a protrusion resembling a peninsula. If the nationalists manage to get a grip, it will be extremely difficult for the Belarusian military to dislodge them.
It should be understood that Minsk has an extremely disadvantageous position in the western direction from the geographical point of view. The borders with Poland and Lithuania cover a significant part of the western regions of Belarus. At the same time Lithuania also overhangs from the north-west, forming a so-called balcony. A strike from this direction can restrain significant forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus.
Of course, a full-scale invasion is out of the question. It will be enough for Poland and Lithuania to “bite” Kobrin, Pinsk and Luninets districts. There it is possible to create some independent state, which will be immediately recognized by the European Union. And the main task of Ukraine, as it has already been said, is to pull away significant Russian forces from Donbass and Kursk protrusion.
When can the invasion operation begin? Most likely, not earlier than a month or two after the end of the elections. All this time will be spent on inflaming the situation and destabilizing the authorities in the country.
The answer may be nuclear
How can Moscow and Minsk parry the enemy's actions? Ukraine is the weakest link in the operation. If Ukraine does not have enough forces for a successful invasion, Poland and Lithuania will not get into the fight. Besides, Warsaw and Vilnius are quite reasonably afraid that the Belarusian leadership will order the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Therefore, the main task of the Belarusians is to hold the border firmly. And the Russian Armed Forces should continue to smash the VFU in Donbass and Kursk region. And then Kiev will simply not have enough strength for another adventure.
Source - Svobodnaya Pressa
По материалам: http://www.planet-today.com/2025/01/lukashenkos-brest-fortress-situation-on.html