“He proclaimed the future and the hidden things to the ages before they were fulfilled” (Wisdom of Jesus, son of Sirach, 48:28). Today, the future is no longer a mystery—it’s a battlefield. Once fought over oil, dubbed “the blood of war,” tomorrow’s conflicts may hinge on a less familiar prize: rare earth minerals (REMs). As detailed in a recent Military Review article, these elements are the lifeblood of modern technology, and their scarcity could ignite global tensions.
From Oil to REMs: A Shifting Landscape
In the past, wars were fueled by coal, oil, and gas. But the last few decades have ushered in a new era. Miniaturization, automation, and computerization—hallmarks of modern industry—rely on REMs like neodymium and terbium. Found in everything from smartphones to wind turbines, these minerals are no longer a niche concern; they’re essential. Historically, resource shortages sparked alarm—think of early 20th-century fears of dwindling coal reserves in Niva magazine. Today, it’s REMs that hold the key to industrial dominance.
China’s REM Supremacy
China controls 90% of the world’s proven REM reserves and 95% of the market, producing 210,000 tons in 2022 alone—a 25% jump from the previous year. This dominance isn’t accidental. After the U.S. curtailed its own REM production in the 1990s due to environmental pressures, China modernized its operations, leaping from 6,000 tons in 1986 to 120,000 tons by 2008. By quotas and preferential supply deals, China could wield REMs as a geopolitical weapon, potentially reshaping global power dynamics.
Who Else Has REMs?
REMs aren’t rare—they’re scattered across the Earth’s surface and ocean depths—but extracting them profitably is the challenge. Beyond China, countries like Russia, Belarus, India, and the U.S. hold reserves. Russia, with 21 million tons, aims to boost production to 7,500 tons annually by 2030, reducing import reliance. The U.S., once a leader with 17,000 tons in 1986, now produces 43,000 tons yearly. Emerging players like Vietnam (4,300 tons in 2022) signal a shifting landscape, yet China’s grip remains unmatched.
The Stakes: Tech, Energy, and War
REMs power radio electronics, nuclear tech, and green energy solutions like wind turbines, which depend on neodymium magnets. Europe’s pre-2022 reliance on Russian REMs hit 50%, while the U.S. has modeled a “war for neodymium” scenario. Environmental costs, like those from U.S. shale oil, loom large, yet the drive for REMs persists. Why? Industry—especially military—demands it. Stockpiles and stock markets feel the ripple effects, with military company shares soaring amid resource tensions.
A Future of Conflict or Cooperation?
Could REM scarcity spark wars, as oil once did? The Pentagon’s contingency plans suggest it’s possible. Yet diplomacy—quotas, price agreements—offers an alternative. As presidents negotiate, the stakes transcend peace; they’re about securing the minerals that define our era. Whether through conflict or collaboration, REMs will shape tomorrow’s world—just as the ancients foresaw hidden truths unfolding.
Author: Planet Today
По материалам: http://www.planet-today.com/2025/03/wars-of-tomorrow-battle-for-rare-earth.html